SUMMIT DIPLOMACY AND STRATEGIC CHOICES

By Francis Hualupmomi
It appears that the domestic politics will affect how PNG interact and make rational strategic choices in the coming regional summit diplomacy in July, 2011. However, this does not preclude its ability to maximize national interest in the competitive playing field.
In the height of political maneuvering of current NA leadership war game at domestic level, three important issues were raised by the sacked former Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister, Don Polye, discerning summit diplomacy at the regional level as reported in Post Courier of 19th July 2011. Polye’s predication begs the question of whether phenomenonal pattern of domestic politics will affect rational decision making in the summit.
As far as regional relations are concerned, these issues are strategically important for PNG to confront the 21st century changing geopolitical power shifting and dynamics – immediate attention by government is absolutely necessary within the context of domestic political tussle.
The first issue at hand concerns the Gillard’s proposal to revisit Manus detention centre, whilst the other two revolve around the ability of the government of the day to participate in the Annual Australia-PNG Ministerial meeting, 44th ASEAN Meeting and 18th ASEAN Regional Meeting to be held in Australia and Bali this July respectively.
Given the magnitude of PNG’s political culture of tension at domestic level, it seems quite clear that the issue of reopening the former asylum centre in Manus province may not likely to take shape as expected. However, this issue may definitely appear on the main agenda in the Annual Australia-PNG Ministerial Forum should it take place this month.
It may be clear on the other hand that the Somare-Abel government may already have a possible response by the projection of the delay. The delay to a certain degree may also give us an indication of possible outcome that either the proposal will be accepted or rejected. The scope of the decision at executive level will depend entirely on the outcome of this meeting or others.
The asylum proposal has been quite controversial in nature due to its failure to produce tangible outcomes which consequently got shut down by Kevin Rudd’s regime. This perhaps could be one of the main reasons which may have shaped Abel’s choice.
However, in the event that this may have popped up in the meeting, the rational choice the government may opt for is to calculate all options available on the table to maximize the optimal preference consistent with national interest.
On the same lane, the ASEAN meetings to be held in Bali are extremely important for PNG given its prominence in Pacific political economy. ASEAN is now the thriving force in global political economy with the Asian tigers and the recent ascendance of China’s rapidly growing economic power.
Interestingly important will be the presence of great power, US, and rising China in the forum meet. In the 21st century, US and China will structurally reshape international relations and global political economy under the US-led liberal order in what is called the Asian century - an argument consistent with Joseph Nye’s dialectics of shift of power from the west to the east.
Now the puzzling question is how can PNG strategically reposition itself in the reconfigured international relations under the framework of ASEAN? Polye has pull the string further by precisely arguing that the indifference in domestic politics may affect PNG’s regional relations and positioning in the forum – one can strongly assume that domestic politics matters in shaping PNG’s regional interactions and positioning.
On the hand, Ano Pala, his successor, has responded with a positive but unclear proposal. It is understood that the Post Courier explicitly reported that Ano Pala and is chief advisor, Michael Mauve, will attend the meeting with no specified meeting proposal. However, it is expected that all is well set for PNG to drive its agenda in the context of national preferences and regional interactions.
The central issue here is how PNG will reshape its size in the forum. With PNG’s elastic wallet given its recent economic performance, it has the economic power to wield some influence in gaining credibility and recognition in the forum. Within the context of economic power maximization, it would rather be a rational choice for PNG to seek permanent status in ASEAN.
PNG cannot afford to lose this important opportunity. Polye’s advice to open some embassies in ASEAN will be a strategic choice as far as national interest is concerned. In projecting the nature of cost-benefit analysis, PNG would stand a better chance to maximize absolute gain. Under the US-led liberal order, although US is economically declining, it will continue to be the regional hegemon providing public good, whilst China’s economic growth will provide an alternative for the region through its hybrid Beijing Consensus.
PNG has caught the ASEAN’s eye already in the Pacific region as the driving economic force given its material resources fundamental in regional political economy and modernization agenda. Should PNG raise the voice of its national anthem in the forum under the framework of gaining permanent status; a possible outcome will be expected.
PNG can wield its economic leverage to shape the decision making behavior of its current investors, for instance, US and China to support its proposal in the forum. The future of PNG’s economic shape and power depends highly on the strategic choices and foreign policy behavior of the current government.
In summative, in the calculus of strategic choice and decision making, it would be wiser for PNG to seize these opportunities in the given summit diplomacy to exercise its growing influence in regional politics. The Annual Australia-PNG Ministerial Meeting is a playing ground in which PNG can opt for better package. In the ASEAN meet, PNG would be better position if it opts for a permanent status – playing the ASEAN card is a strategic choice given the nature and scope of shifting geopolitical geo-economical dynamics.