PNG LNG Project and its Security Implications in Western Pacific Region

By Francis Hualupmomi
The PNG LNG project is prone to potential real security threats if necessary mechanisms are not set by the government before 2014.
In this edition, I specifically focus on potential real threats from internal and external environments pose to affect PNG LNG projects and western Pacific region. I begin by highlighting a brief background on geopolitics of energy security.
Energy is one of the most important geo-strategic and economic interests of any state to co-exist in the international system. Energy contributes to both economy and military power projection in order for a state to exercise its powers to “want what it wants”. In simple, it guarantees the security of a state to survive. For instance, in 1914, Lord Admiral Winston Churchill of British Navy use coercive force as a means to have control and access to Persian Oil to project strategic advantage over Germany.
In Defence Economics history, world wars and conflicts are fought over “who should own and have complete access” to energy sources. For instance, in World War II, Japan’s attempt to establish Great Asian Sphere of Influence with a strategic motive and intent to have control and access over material resources in Asia Pacific blindly led to invasion of Hawaii.
In modern times, the continuous competition, tensions, conflicts and wars by big powers, especially from West demonstrate the significance of energy. One must know that energy is a scarce resource and states have to compete antagonistically through use of coercive force or normative force to maximize their interests. The Gulf Wars, Libya invasion, Kosovo and Georgia crises, to name a few, are all cases of energy competition.
More interestingly, the fight against western imperialism or sometimes referred to as clash of civilization from terrorist groups mostly from Middle Eastern countries is continuous and will remain for the next century. With developments in transportation, communication and information technology, and innovative sophisticated technologies driven by the complex process of globalization, modern terrorism and transnational criminal organizations have mushroomed with more complex capacity to infiltrate borders to maximize their interests.
Given this historical trend and new developments in security in 21st century, is PNG LNG project safe to project economic power in the region?

From a strategic calculus, the LNG project is highly vulnerable and will attract potential real threats in PNG and western Pacific theatres. Several strategic scenarios are posited. In first scenario, terrorists groups, in particular political terrorism pose a potential threat given the fact that the project is a U.S led. Terrorists’ main target is U.S-allies strategic and economic theatres. The LNG project is no exception. Terrorists employ and deploy smart tactics to destroy strategic points such as physical infrastructures, shipping routes and civilians. In this scenario, we expect Port Moresby, Kutubu, Kopi and Juha Plants as credible threats (see PNG LNG map).
In second scenario, transnational crimes such as piratism, illegal gun smuggling, and illegal immigrants in maritime and continental border is most likely to further proliferate and worsening the scenario. In third scenario, Australia and New Zealand are credible targets of terrorism. Both countries, strong allies of U.S in the region will be targeted by terrorists from Middle East and Asia. As strategically positioned in the map, terrorists groups can use PNG as a strategic transit point via borders to attack Australia and New Zealand.
In fourth scenario, resource owners’ rebellion will continue to expand in scope as their demands are not met by the government and the investors. The Singirok GUN SUMMIT REPORT exposed the existence of gun, especially in highlands region as a potential real threat in the country. We expect a mercenary-like-military to be projected by resource owners to challenge the status quo. The bad side of the coin with resource owners rebellion is a possibility of small scale foreign military intervention should the national interest of the investors and state are under threat. The Bougainville and East Timor Civil crises are classic cases.
In the final scenario, miscalculation by PNG and U.S with potential investors such as China, Japan and other western countries may lead to geostrategic competition. We expect strategic maneuvering of warlike-games and proxy wars to escalate into tensions and conflict, however, grand scale war is unthinkable due to complex web of interdependence. Given these emerging new security challenges, what can PNG do?
• The government should seriously implement the Gun Summit Report;
• Modernize military power capacity and capability power projection;
• PNGDF military doctrines and structures should be realigned;
• Increase maritime, airspace and continental constant surveillance;
• Police capacity should be modernized in smart fashion to deal with these new challenges;
• Strengthen the National Intelligence Organization;
• Resource Owners issue should be managed cautiously; and
• Asia-Pacific Security Cooperative Framework should be strengthened.
Whilst more concentration is focused on economic aspects, security and strategic considerations are necessary to mend and fend off potential real threats. The success of LNG project to transform PNG into a modern middle income economy by 2050 and stability of the Western Pacific region depends on its national security arrangement and positioning.