Defending Vision 20050 Thesis
By Francis Hualupmomi
I read with great interest the increasingly trafficking of critics and criticisms on the Vision 2050 (v2050) thesis and I am hereby compelled to defend it in a critical static standpoint. I am convinced that that the vision may possibly be achieved if there is a national will and drive. But first I wish to define the dynamics of v2050 and its logical sequencing for the newcomers.
I prefer to call v2050 thesis as a “Theory of Long Term Strategic Planning in Modernization”. The hypothesis is: “PNG will become a smart, fair, wise, healthy and happy nation when all the directional statements under the V2050 are articulated, institutionalized and implemented efficiently and effectively”. The v2050 is a political thought translated into a political statement or instruction called the strategic roadmap, charting PNG’s destiny to modernization. It is comprehensively driven by 7 key strategic pillars outlining more than 100 broad activities on how state apparatus should collectively function towards achieving it.
The vision is translated by an operational strategy called Development Strategic Plan 2030 (DSP2030). It broadly outlines quantitative long and short range goals and objectives to guide planning and expenditure priorities, which will be implemented through sectoral programs, to achieve the vision. In essence, it defines the current situation of PNG; provides targets of where PNG would be in the future; and how PNG will get there through its intervention package.
The DSP2030 will be implemented by sectoral plans called Implementation Strategic Plans by each sector. Each sector will develop its own strategies to respond to the vision. These strategic plans outline specific strategies (activities) to harmonize DSP2030 and v2050.
All these plans will work systematically and harmoniously to achieve the government’s main target - to attain a “Middle Income Economy/country” (MIC) by 2050. Currently, the government is working aggressively to design and deploy effective political and economic tools through strategic maneuvering to achieve these goals and objectives set in precedence.
In summative, the v2050 is a political instruction being translated and implemented through the operative and implementation strategies in a cascading logical sequencing order.
I dispute the critics and argue that the v2050 may possibly be achieved premised on these key assumptions:
First, the vision will be anchored in the law to avoid frequent political and administrative instability and inconsistencies. Over the last decades numerous policies and plans failed simply because of lack of firm legal grounding or legitimacy.
Second, other lessons support our long term strategic theory in modernization. The Malaysian Strategic Plan 2020 demonstrates an interesting model of long term strategic planning. Malaysia shares similar geo-political characteristics to PNG as a developing country. A long term strategic plan has led them to achieve its target as one of the MICs.
Nevertheless, a strategic shifting in ‘attitude’ is needed. PNG has an attitude syndrome which by extreme has curtailed development and modernization agenda. Should there be a shift in the pattern of thoughts within the mental faculty that governs its behavior, a rapid transformation and break through will occur.
Finally, a sense of ownership and patriotism (nationalism) is required. Everyone must take ownership and drive the vision with aggressive patriotism.
If these assumptions are right PNG will leap frog from an agrarian based economy into a modernized and industrialized state. More so, PNG will become an emerging soft middle power and a leading economy in the Pacific region. However, it is cautioned that although it is possible to achieve the vision, I must admit that at least to a certain point most plans will be achieved whilst some may not.
Exclusively, the v2050 is the only game. Everyone must speak the same language and operate at the same frequency. Although, critics are healthy in policy domain there is no room for reversing. The world is increasingly changing and becoming more complex and competitive with globalization phenomena. With increasing demographic challenges, market imperatives, intensified trade and innovation in technologies, PNG cannot afford to remain stagnant. Losers of game may mean PNG bandwagoning big powers and increasing the dependency syndrome.
Instead, credit should be given to our very own elites who have collectively worked tirelessly to translate political thoughts in modernization agenda. This is a truly home grown theory of strategic directions and plans in modernization. Hence, let’s be more optimistic about our new theory. Unless it is tested we will know the failures and success to improve on. In other words, we are not in a position to either proving or disproving this new theory when and until it is fully implemented.
It can be concluded that the new theory of long term strategic planning in PNG may be too ambitious in nature as echoed by many critics, however, it may be possible to be achieved by 2050 if the assumptions are right and implemented.
The author studies a Master of Arts in International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. For comments he can be reached on email: profdrakes@gmail.com