Defending Vision 20050 Thesis
By Francis Hualupmomi
I read with great interest the increasingly trafficking of critics and criticisms on the Vision 2050 (v2050) thesis and I am hereby compelled to defend it in a critical static standpoint. I am convinced that that the vision may possibly be achieved if there is a national will and drive. But first I wish to define the dynamics of v2050 and its logical sequencing for the newcomers.
I prefer to call v2050 thesis as a “Theory of Long Term Strategic Planning in Modernization”. The hypothesis is: “PNG will become a smart, fair, wise, healthy and happy nation when all the directional statements under the V2050 are articulated, institutionalized and implemented efficiently and effectively”. The v2050 is a political thought translated into a political statement or instruction called the strategic roadmap, charting PNG’s destiny to modernization. It is comprehensively driven by 7 key strategic pillars outlining more than 100 broad activities on how state apparatus should collectively function towards achieving it.
The vision is translated by an operational strategy called Development Strategic Plan 2030 (DSP2030). It broadly outlines quantitative long and short range goals and objectives to guide planning and expenditure priorities, which will be implemented through sectoral programs, to achieve the vision. In essence, it defines the current situation of PNG; provides targets of where PNG would be in the future; and how PNG will get there through its intervention package.
The DSP2030 will be implemented by sectoral plans called Implementation Strategic Plans by each sector. Each sector will develop its own strategies to respond to the vision. These strategic plans outline specific strategies (activities) to harmonize DSP2030 and v2050.
All these plans will work systematically and harmoniously to achieve the government’s main target - to attain a “Middle Income Economy/country” (MIC) by 2050. Currently, the government is working aggressively to design and deploy effective political and economic tools through strategic maneuvering to achieve these goals and objectives set in precedence.
In summative, the v2050 is a political instruction being translated and implemented through the operative and implementation strategies in a cascading logical sequencing order.
I dispute the critics and argue that the v2050 may possibly be achieved premised on these key assumptions:
First, the vision will be anchored in the law to avoid frequent political and administrative instability and inconsistencies. Over the last decades numerous policies and plans failed simply because of lack of firm legal grounding or legitimacy.
Second, other lessons support our long term strategic theory in modernization. The Malaysian Strategic Plan 2020 demonstrates an interesting model of long term strategic planning. Malaysia shares similar geo-political characteristics to PNG as a developing country. A long term strategic plan has led them to achieve its target as one of the MICs.
Nevertheless, a strategic shifting in ‘attitude’ is needed. PNG has an attitude syndrome which by extreme has curtailed development and modernization agenda. Should there be a shift in the pattern of thoughts within the mental faculty that governs its behavior, a rapid transformation and break through will occur.
Finally, a sense of ownership and patriotism (nationalism) is required. Everyone must take ownership and drive the vision with aggressive patriotism.
If these assumptions are right PNG will leap frog from an agrarian based economy into a modernized and industrialized state. More so, PNG will become an emerging soft middle power and a leading economy in the Pacific region. However, it is cautioned that although it is possible to achieve the vision, I must admit that at least to a certain point most plans will be achieved whilst some may not.
Exclusively, the v2050 is the only game. Everyone must speak the same language and operate at the same frequency. Although, critics are healthy in policy domain there is no room for reversing. The world is increasingly changing and becoming more complex and competitive with globalization phenomena. With increasing demographic challenges, market imperatives, intensified trade and innovation in technologies, PNG cannot afford to remain stagnant. Losers of game may mean PNG bandwagoning big powers and increasing the dependency syndrome.
Instead, credit should be given to our very own elites who have collectively worked tirelessly to translate political thoughts in modernization agenda. This is a truly home grown theory of strategic directions and plans in modernization. Hence, let’s be more optimistic about our new theory. Unless it is tested we will know the failures and success to improve on. In other words, we are not in a position to either proving or disproving this new theory when and until it is fully implemented.
It can be concluded that the new theory of long term strategic planning in PNG may be too ambitious in nature as echoed by many critics, however, it may be possible to be achieved by 2050 if the assumptions are right and implemented.
The author studies a Master of Arts in International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. For comments he can be reached on email: profdrakes@gmail.com
Monday, December 13, 2010
Towards Theorizing Pacific in World Politics
By Francis Hualupmomi
The focus of International Relations (IR) has very much shifted to East Asia as I may posit here in the context of the rise and influence of China in Post Cold War era. I briefly sketch the history of IR theories and explain how it has changed over time and space. Then I call for PNG scholars to theorize this shift in world politics.
Historically and conventionally IR has always been a Western concept. It emerges as a result of the rise of US during World War II and Cold War period. This period simultaneously marked the ideological emergence and confrontations in an attempt to ‘inquire, explore and explain’ the continuum of world politics characterized by conflicts and instability. Simply put it, how Western scholars attempt to explain and predict US hegemonic role in world politics.
Interestingly, the end of Cold War period marked the turning point of IR. The Cold War constructs a bipolar system of two dominant camps – US vs. Russia – of conflicting idealism. Two main IR theories, Realism and Liberalism took center stage to explain and predict states’ outlook and behavior with respect to Liberal Democracy and Communism.
After the end of Cold War several theorists question the validity of these theories, which gives birth to other theories such as constructivism in explaining the future of word politics. However, more increasingly significant, is the rise of China in the East, which has now posed a more intensified challenge to conventional IR theories.
China’s prominence in world politics is shaking both low (soft) politics and power politics (real-politico). The Post Cold War era has constructed East Asia has the ‘centre of gravity’ attracting and shifting almost all IR scholars to predict the reconfiguration of the international system and world politics. The question one would pose is: what would IR be with the rise of China? This question stimulates other implicative questions: is China a threat to West, in particular US? Will China replace US as the global hegemon?
Three conflicting theories predict different scenarios about these questions. First, Realists predict that the rise of China is a threat to US and may cause future conflict and instability. Second, Liberalism predicts that reemergence of socialism after the end of Cold War may have friction with triumph of liberalism. Finally, the new non-conventional IR theory, constructivism argues that China may not be a threat to the West premised on the argument that shared common norms play an important role, however, are cautious that rise of China may conflict other shared norms.
In contrary, Chinese scholars are currently disputing these Western theories and attempting to develop its own hybrid theory premised on Confucius thoughts. According to Chinese IR scholars, China is miscalculated as a threat to US by Western scholars. This is because Confucius philosophy of ‘peace and harmonious society’ ultimately constraints conflict and instability.
While the Chinese scholars are indulging into designing a theory in IR to best explain and predict its position in world politics, other scholars in particular from developing countries should embark bandwagoning the new school, although resting on conventional school. The challenge at the macro level is how developing countries will adapt into rapidly changing paradigms with IR. It is not about how they will play a high politics rather a low politics – not only to gain but generally to construct a peaceful and harmonious society under the global governance framework.
At micro level, how do PNG and the Pacific region theorize the new IR as predicted by conventional IR theories? Whist the focus of study is in East Asia, this does not exclude other regions of strategic interest. Pacific region has been one of the ‘playing fields’ of low and high politics. After the end of WWII and Cold war the rise, expansion and influence of China has dramatically tested US regional hegemony. It is a complex issue though.
In essence, PNG scholars with support from government should comprehensively define and establish a project on theorizing Pacific perspectives in IR. International politics play an important role in determining ones position in international system. On the extreme, developments in world politics may affect state’s national interest driven by policy and institutional paradigms, for instance The Vision 2050.
PNG is the ‘soft power’ in the region and is already playing an important role in regional and world politics, for instance, in global warming. She is expected to be a leading economic power in the region come full economization of LNG projects as predicted by some distinguished political and economic analysts.
Other developing countries, in particular Africa have developed and contributed their thoughts in IR focusing on how they see themselves within asymmetry of world politics. Indeed, PNG in the true interest of the Pacific region should learn and work closely with emerging China and some African countries to theorize its new approach in the context of emerging powers. It is suggested that an International Studies Institute within University of Papua New Guinea dedicated to this project should be the way forward.
I conclude that IR is dynamically changing and or shifting with the rise of emerging powers, which questions conventional IR theories. There is a need to theorize a hybrid theory on how PNG in the interest of Pacific should adapt itself in modern global politics.
Francis Hualupmomi studies a Master of Arts in International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. He can be reached on profdrakes@gmail.com
By Francis Hualupmomi
The focus of International Relations (IR) has very much shifted to East Asia as I may posit here in the context of the rise and influence of China in Post Cold War era. I briefly sketch the history of IR theories and explain how it has changed over time and space. Then I call for PNG scholars to theorize this shift in world politics.
Historically and conventionally IR has always been a Western concept. It emerges as a result of the rise of US during World War II and Cold War period. This period simultaneously marked the ideological emergence and confrontations in an attempt to ‘inquire, explore and explain’ the continuum of world politics characterized by conflicts and instability. Simply put it, how Western scholars attempt to explain and predict US hegemonic role in world politics.
Interestingly, the end of Cold War period marked the turning point of IR. The Cold War constructs a bipolar system of two dominant camps – US vs. Russia – of conflicting idealism. Two main IR theories, Realism and Liberalism took center stage to explain and predict states’ outlook and behavior with respect to Liberal Democracy and Communism.
After the end of Cold War several theorists question the validity of these theories, which gives birth to other theories such as constructivism in explaining the future of word politics. However, more increasingly significant, is the rise of China in the East, which has now posed a more intensified challenge to conventional IR theories.
China’s prominence in world politics is shaking both low (soft) politics and power politics (real-politico). The Post Cold War era has constructed East Asia has the ‘centre of gravity’ attracting and shifting almost all IR scholars to predict the reconfiguration of the international system and world politics. The question one would pose is: what would IR be with the rise of China? This question stimulates other implicative questions: is China a threat to West, in particular US? Will China replace US as the global hegemon?
Three conflicting theories predict different scenarios about these questions. First, Realists predict that the rise of China is a threat to US and may cause future conflict and instability. Second, Liberalism predicts that reemergence of socialism after the end of Cold War may have friction with triumph of liberalism. Finally, the new non-conventional IR theory, constructivism argues that China may not be a threat to the West premised on the argument that shared common norms play an important role, however, are cautious that rise of China may conflict other shared norms.
In contrary, Chinese scholars are currently disputing these Western theories and attempting to develop its own hybrid theory premised on Confucius thoughts. According to Chinese IR scholars, China is miscalculated as a threat to US by Western scholars. This is because Confucius philosophy of ‘peace and harmonious society’ ultimately constraints conflict and instability.
While the Chinese scholars are indulging into designing a theory in IR to best explain and predict its position in world politics, other scholars in particular from developing countries should embark bandwagoning the new school, although resting on conventional school. The challenge at the macro level is how developing countries will adapt into rapidly changing paradigms with IR. It is not about how they will play a high politics rather a low politics – not only to gain but generally to construct a peaceful and harmonious society under the global governance framework.
At micro level, how do PNG and the Pacific region theorize the new IR as predicted by conventional IR theories? Whist the focus of study is in East Asia, this does not exclude other regions of strategic interest. Pacific region has been one of the ‘playing fields’ of low and high politics. After the end of WWII and Cold war the rise, expansion and influence of China has dramatically tested US regional hegemony. It is a complex issue though.
In essence, PNG scholars with support from government should comprehensively define and establish a project on theorizing Pacific perspectives in IR. International politics play an important role in determining ones position in international system. On the extreme, developments in world politics may affect state’s national interest driven by policy and institutional paradigms, for instance The Vision 2050.
PNG is the ‘soft power’ in the region and is already playing an important role in regional and world politics, for instance, in global warming. She is expected to be a leading economic power in the region come full economization of LNG projects as predicted by some distinguished political and economic analysts.
Other developing countries, in particular Africa have developed and contributed their thoughts in IR focusing on how they see themselves within asymmetry of world politics. Indeed, PNG in the true interest of the Pacific region should learn and work closely with emerging China and some African countries to theorize its new approach in the context of emerging powers. It is suggested that an International Studies Institute within University of Papua New Guinea dedicated to this project should be the way forward.
I conclude that IR is dynamically changing and or shifting with the rise of emerging powers, which questions conventional IR theories. There is a need to theorize a hybrid theory on how PNG in the interest of Pacific should adapt itself in modern global politics.
Francis Hualupmomi studies a Master of Arts in International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. He can be reached on profdrakes@gmail.com
Entreprenualism is an art in China . . .
By Francis Hualupmomi
Entreprenualism is one of the important strategic tools in transforming an economy in modernisation and industrialisation age. One aspect of the Chinese economic success is the entreprenual culture in their market economy.
China is a socialist state with a command economy and centralised political and administrative system.
It appears that from a foreign political perspective, the Chinese political system may be perceived as an ideal model that shapes and governs the pattern of economic behaviour in the market economy.
Although this perception may be contentious in nature, there is a feeling of ownership and aggressiveness in people to be productive in the economy. The Great Leap Economic Manifesto designed and deployed by the Communist Party has played a significant role in shaping the economic behaviour of its people. Citizens are compelled to work for the government in the interest of “collective good” or “common good” where wealth is created and distributed equally in the society. This culture, one can argue, provides the foundation for people to be innovative in small scale entreprenualism.
In essence, entreprenualism is an art in China where economic activities take place anywhere at anytime. People buy and sell variety of goods, ranging from vegetables to electronics in the market. There is no such thing as laziness. Its economic activity is mostly premised on “bargaining power”.
Small scale market economy is most common in China and is one aspect that helps Chinese economic superiority in the new reconfigured globalised knowledge-based economy. The Chinese entreprenual culture is an interesting model for PNG to learn.
More interestingly, China has a big population with limited natural resources and abundance of human capital but has managed to grow extremely well within a short period of time. The question one would ask is why?
The simple answer is people are becoming so “smart to create wealth”. Entreprenualism is the strategic formula. There is no exception for PNG with less population and abundance resources. For instance, in Jilin, the province where I live and study, the population is about 16 million compared to PNG which is 6.5 million but people are able to utilise existing resources to produce economy of scale in order to create wealth.
There is no reason for people in PNG to migrate and settle in urban centres aimlessly and becoming unproductive. People should refocus their approach in creating wealth using abundance of resources. Unless this is done local people will continue to see Asian dominating the local market economy. There is also a misperception in PNG about Asian dominance in the local market economy, in particular Chinese businesses. Chinese-PNG working altitude can be best expressed in this slang Chinese “people work to live” while PNG people “live to work”. Chinese are hard working people and it is part of their life and culture which PNG needs to understand and appreciate. In PNG, people are more dependent and surviving on free handouts which is a bad culture that needs pruning.
Entreprenualism culture is what is lacking right now in PNG to drive the economy to modernisation and industrialisation in the age of globalization. There is a need to introduce entreprenualism education in all levels of education (both formal and informal).
It can be said that China is an ideal place for PNG scholars, policy makers and business and ordinary people to come and learn and experience its entreprenual culture in the age of globalisation. I am in no doubt PNG can attain a “Middle Income Economy” status by 2050 when there is an absolute strategic shifting in people’s mindset and or attitude.
Francis Hualupmomi is a Masters candidate in International Politics at the Institute of International Studies in Jilin University, China. For further information he can be contacted on profdrakes@gmail.com
By Francis Hualupmomi
Entreprenualism is one of the important strategic tools in transforming an economy in modernisation and industrialisation age. One aspect of the Chinese economic success is the entreprenual culture in their market economy.
China is a socialist state with a command economy and centralised political and administrative system.
It appears that from a foreign political perspective, the Chinese political system may be perceived as an ideal model that shapes and governs the pattern of economic behaviour in the market economy.
Although this perception may be contentious in nature, there is a feeling of ownership and aggressiveness in people to be productive in the economy. The Great Leap Economic Manifesto designed and deployed by the Communist Party has played a significant role in shaping the economic behaviour of its people. Citizens are compelled to work for the government in the interest of “collective good” or “common good” where wealth is created and distributed equally in the society. This culture, one can argue, provides the foundation for people to be innovative in small scale entreprenualism.
In essence, entreprenualism is an art in China where economic activities take place anywhere at anytime. People buy and sell variety of goods, ranging from vegetables to electronics in the market. There is no such thing as laziness. Its economic activity is mostly premised on “bargaining power”.
Small scale market economy is most common in China and is one aspect that helps Chinese economic superiority in the new reconfigured globalised knowledge-based economy. The Chinese entreprenual culture is an interesting model for PNG to learn.
More interestingly, China has a big population with limited natural resources and abundance of human capital but has managed to grow extremely well within a short period of time. The question one would ask is why?
The simple answer is people are becoming so “smart to create wealth”. Entreprenualism is the strategic formula. There is no exception for PNG with less population and abundance resources. For instance, in Jilin, the province where I live and study, the population is about 16 million compared to PNG which is 6.5 million but people are able to utilise existing resources to produce economy of scale in order to create wealth.
There is no reason for people in PNG to migrate and settle in urban centres aimlessly and becoming unproductive. People should refocus their approach in creating wealth using abundance of resources. Unless this is done local people will continue to see Asian dominating the local market economy. There is also a misperception in PNG about Asian dominance in the local market economy, in particular Chinese businesses. Chinese-PNG working altitude can be best expressed in this slang Chinese “people work to live” while PNG people “live to work”. Chinese are hard working people and it is part of their life and culture which PNG needs to understand and appreciate. In PNG, people are more dependent and surviving on free handouts which is a bad culture that needs pruning.
Entreprenualism culture is what is lacking right now in PNG to drive the economy to modernisation and industrialisation in the age of globalization. There is a need to introduce entreprenualism education in all levels of education (both formal and informal).
It can be said that China is an ideal place for PNG scholars, policy makers and business and ordinary people to come and learn and experience its entreprenual culture in the age of globalisation. I am in no doubt PNG can attain a “Middle Income Economy” status by 2050 when there is an absolute strategic shifting in people’s mindset and or attitude.
Francis Hualupmomi is a Masters candidate in International Politics at the Institute of International Studies in Jilin University, China. For further information he can be contacted on profdrakes@gmail.com
Role of Church in Human Capital Development
By Francis Hualupmomi
The Church plays an increasingly important role in development agenda. Although its central role is in the influence of evangelism across sovereign borders, social dimension also appears to be a complementary factor in the complete human transformation process.
The role of Church has transformed over time, space and distance. As globalization widens and deepens its scope across territorial borders, ideas, values and cultures impact the wider spectrum of international communities. The expansion and influence of Church is the manifestation of this wave of social modernization and internationalization. Today, the role of church in socio-economic development is distinctive and embraced widely by state and citizens.
The Church appears to be an important agent of change; precisely it fills in the missing gap left by the state. The provision of “Public Good” is the conventional central role of state to maintain order and harmony in the society. However, not all states have the sovereign capacity to maximize available resources to satisfy needs and wants of its citizens. It is at this juncture that the Church assumes the missing link to ensure continuum in social harmony.
The Church mainly provides public good in parallel with the state in a wider spectrum:
1. Affordable health services;
2. Welfare services; and
3. Affordable quality education.
The discourse on Church’s distinctive role is beyond my discussion. I condense my focus on human capital development with respect to affordable quality education.
The Church’s role in human capital development in PNG is highly recognizable. The first education began with the arrival of Christianism - as part of the wave of Europeanism in the Pacific region - in particular Roman Catholic followed by other Churches. Some of the finest minds of PNG elites, in the likes of Dr. Steven Edmund Winduo, late Professor Otto Nikitel, Sir Michael Somare, Sir Paulias Matane, etc, are the products of Roman Catholic Education.
I also pay tribute to one of the religious Orders in Roman Catholic, Missionaries of Charity Sisters. It first arrived in East Sepik in 1989 and established its foundation in Tangogo Pastoral Center, Wewak. The Order follows St. Teresa’s philosophy "Wholehearted and Free service to the poorest of the poor". This Order has contributed immensely to refugees, ex-prostitutes, the mentally ill, sick children, abandoned children, lepers, AIDS victims, the aged, etc. In Tangogo, it established the first “Kindergarten School” for the disadvantaged. I am proud to be one of the pioneers of this school to see it penetrating every corner of PNG. I will never forget Sister Antonia from India who has been very instrumental in setting my foundation.
St. Teresa and the Order of Missionaries of Charity Sisters
A holistic approach inclusive of non-state actors is a strategic ingredient in modernization agenda. In a world of interdependence complementary actions accentuates the spirit of ‘efficiency’ in the provision of public good.
The state must be commended in recognizing the role of Church in development. The inclusion of Church–State partnership in Vision 2050 is the way forward. The first pillar, Human Capital Development, is a critical strategy. With the current deteriorating state of affairs in our education and higher education system, complementary role is healthy. What is required is a continuous support provided by the government to Church to realize its strategic current thinking. The state alone cannot realize the Vision 2050.
There are ample run-down Church schools and colleges in PNG that require immediate attention. It is appealingly saddened to see some of these neglected colleges struggling to survive with scarce resources to educate our children.
Government’s strategy to rescue and upgrade deteriorating socio-economic infrastructures should not be urban-biased. Whilst focusing on state public institutions, restoring former glory of most of our run-down Church schools is potentially economical. Economizing human capital incur ‘higher returns’ in the long run. Restoring teachers, nursing and science and technological colleges is an urgent need.
Francis Hualupmomi studies a Master of Arts in International Relations & International Law at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. He can be reached on profdrakes@gmail.com
By Francis Hualupmomi
The Church plays an increasingly important role in development agenda. Although its central role is in the influence of evangelism across sovereign borders, social dimension also appears to be a complementary factor in the complete human transformation process.
The role of Church has transformed over time, space and distance. As globalization widens and deepens its scope across territorial borders, ideas, values and cultures impact the wider spectrum of international communities. The expansion and influence of Church is the manifestation of this wave of social modernization and internationalization. Today, the role of church in socio-economic development is distinctive and embraced widely by state and citizens.
The Church appears to be an important agent of change; precisely it fills in the missing gap left by the state. The provision of “Public Good” is the conventional central role of state to maintain order and harmony in the society. However, not all states have the sovereign capacity to maximize available resources to satisfy needs and wants of its citizens. It is at this juncture that the Church assumes the missing link to ensure continuum in social harmony.
The Church mainly provides public good in parallel with the state in a wider spectrum:
1. Affordable health services;
2. Welfare services; and
3. Affordable quality education.
The discourse on Church’s distinctive role is beyond my discussion. I condense my focus on human capital development with respect to affordable quality education.
The Church’s role in human capital development in PNG is highly recognizable. The first education began with the arrival of Christianism - as part of the wave of Europeanism in the Pacific region - in particular Roman Catholic followed by other Churches. Some of the finest minds of PNG elites, in the likes of Dr. Steven Edmund Winduo, late Professor Otto Nikitel, Sir Michael Somare, Sir Paulias Matane, etc, are the products of Roman Catholic Education.
I also pay tribute to one of the religious Orders in Roman Catholic, Missionaries of Charity Sisters. It first arrived in East Sepik in 1989 and established its foundation in Tangogo Pastoral Center, Wewak. The Order follows St. Teresa’s philosophy "Wholehearted and Free service to the poorest of the poor". This Order has contributed immensely to refugees, ex-prostitutes, the mentally ill, sick children, abandoned children, lepers, AIDS victims, the aged, etc. In Tangogo, it established the first “Kindergarten School” for the disadvantaged. I am proud to be one of the pioneers of this school to see it penetrating every corner of PNG. I will never forget Sister Antonia from India who has been very instrumental in setting my foundation.
St. Teresa and the Order of Missionaries of Charity Sisters
A holistic approach inclusive of non-state actors is a strategic ingredient in modernization agenda. In a world of interdependence complementary actions accentuates the spirit of ‘efficiency’ in the provision of public good.
The state must be commended in recognizing the role of Church in development. The inclusion of Church–State partnership in Vision 2050 is the way forward. The first pillar, Human Capital Development, is a critical strategy. With the current deteriorating state of affairs in our education and higher education system, complementary role is healthy. What is required is a continuous support provided by the government to Church to realize its strategic current thinking. The state alone cannot realize the Vision 2050.
There are ample run-down Church schools and colleges in PNG that require immediate attention. It is appealingly saddened to see some of these neglected colleges struggling to survive with scarce resources to educate our children.
Government’s strategy to rescue and upgrade deteriorating socio-economic infrastructures should not be urban-biased. Whilst focusing on state public institutions, restoring former glory of most of our run-down Church schools is potentially economical. Economizing human capital incur ‘higher returns’ in the long run. Restoring teachers, nursing and science and technological colleges is an urgent need.
Francis Hualupmomi studies a Master of Arts in International Relations & International Law at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. He can be reached on profdrakes@gmail.com
PNG Future Economic Power in Pacific?
Will PNG Become the Next Economic Power in Pacific Region?
Francis Hualupmomi
It is predicted that PNG will possibly become the next economic power in the Pacific region should she play the right game. I attempt to postulate this scenario premised on current political and economic events as it is or may unfold and provide some alternative strategies. These assumptions can be contested.
PNG has seen a steady economic growth over the past 9 years and is predicted to continue grow. That’s a remarkable unprecedented growth largely due to continuous stable political regime and prudent macroeconomic and fiscal management framework.
One of the main reasons why a country may see steady economic growth rests with the kind of political environment and climax created and maintained by a vibrant political regime. A stable political regime is necessary to foster an ideal economic scenario. This however, comes with effective and efficient strategic internal mechanisms, although dynamics of instability exist.
Contextually, it can be said that PNG economy has picked up well since mid 2000 with political shifting from Mekere regime to Somare regime. Mekere regime provided at least an economic foundation for the Somare regime take-off. The healthy economic performance of PNG economy can be alluded to a consistently sound political and economic framework engineered by Somare regime despite internal and external political and economic pressures.
The current government’s economic framework has fostered a conducive environment stimulating healthy economic performance. Despite slow world economic crisis recovery the economy has seen a steady economic growth rate from 5.5 per cent last year and is expected to grow by 8.5 percent this year. With blooming economic potentials being or will be economized PNG is expected to see another Asian miracle in the region sooner. Four important economic potentials underpin this prediction: LNG; Hydrology; geothermal; Carbon Trade and New Mining.
Geo-economically, the LNG is on of the biggest global energy projects, which is projected to boost PNG economy by about 11 per cent when it is fully economized in 2014. This will be interestingly similar to current Chinese economic growth rate.
More significantly, the LNG project will further be boosted by the carbon trade, geothermal energy, hydrology project from Southern Highlands to Australia and new mining operations such as Ramu-Nikko, Freda Mine, undersea bed mining and others.
In the context of globalised regional economy orientation and constituency PNG should strategically play an important role through strategic maneuvering in a US-led liberal order to achieve its national goals and objectives. Three economic regimes are strategically important for PNG to maximize absolute regional gains – accuracy in economic calculation is necessary.
First, PNG should focus on how it should strategically maneuver in regional regimes in economic liberalization (globalization). While it assumes economic power through domestic economic signals it should map out how it will strategically position herself in its export-led strategy in Pacific Island Forum (PIF) and Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). It should take active role in influencing outcomes of ‘rules of game’ to maximize absolute gains. Failure to do so may result in continuous entrapment, abandonment and exploitation by big powers.
Second, PNG needs to build a nexus between Asian regimes to synergize its export-led strategy. In recent times, Asia is the centre of gravity attracting economic potentials. With China as the second largest economic power, bridging Asian market economy is a strategic step in harmonizing PNG’s economic wealth. ASEAN is an important regime which PNG must penetrate and participate in economic activities.
PNG must also exploit market opportunities in APEC. The APEC provides more region-wide market linkages which PNG can market its economic potentials to attract and maximize absolute gains. Should this is perfectly executed high economic returns will be attained to build economic power.
Clustering economic potentials and exploiting market synergies in Asia seems possible with heavy expansion of US and Chinese investment in the region. The US hegemonic role and rising China in the region provide yet an ideal economic environment to exploit opportunities. Power politics provides public good that can assists economically potential states such as PNG.
If these assumptions are right PNG is expected to be economically powerful and will assume some prominent roles in international relations of Pacific region. It will be an interesting historical time when PNG rises with rising China under US-led liberal order. However, this depends on the cost of political governance. Maintaining the current regime with improvement in governance mechanism is necessary.
Francis Hualupmomi studies a Master of Arts in International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. He can be reached on hualupmomif@hotmail.com
Francis Hualupmomi
It is predicted that PNG will possibly become the next economic power in the Pacific region should she play the right game. I attempt to postulate this scenario premised on current political and economic events as it is or may unfold and provide some alternative strategies. These assumptions can be contested.
PNG has seen a steady economic growth over the past 9 years and is predicted to continue grow. That’s a remarkable unprecedented growth largely due to continuous stable political regime and prudent macroeconomic and fiscal management framework.
One of the main reasons why a country may see steady economic growth rests with the kind of political environment and climax created and maintained by a vibrant political regime. A stable political regime is necessary to foster an ideal economic scenario. This however, comes with effective and efficient strategic internal mechanisms, although dynamics of instability exist.
Contextually, it can be said that PNG economy has picked up well since mid 2000 with political shifting from Mekere regime to Somare regime. Mekere regime provided at least an economic foundation for the Somare regime take-off. The healthy economic performance of PNG economy can be alluded to a consistently sound political and economic framework engineered by Somare regime despite internal and external political and economic pressures.
The current government’s economic framework has fostered a conducive environment stimulating healthy economic performance. Despite slow world economic crisis recovery the economy has seen a steady economic growth rate from 5.5 per cent last year and is expected to grow by 8.5 percent this year. With blooming economic potentials being or will be economized PNG is expected to see another Asian miracle in the region sooner. Four important economic potentials underpin this prediction: LNG; Hydrology; geothermal; Carbon Trade and New Mining.
Geo-economically, the LNG is on of the biggest global energy projects, which is projected to boost PNG economy by about 11 per cent when it is fully economized in 2014. This will be interestingly similar to current Chinese economic growth rate.
More significantly, the LNG project will further be boosted by the carbon trade, geothermal energy, hydrology project from Southern Highlands to Australia and new mining operations such as Ramu-Nikko, Freda Mine, undersea bed mining and others.
In the context of globalised regional economy orientation and constituency PNG should strategically play an important role through strategic maneuvering in a US-led liberal order to achieve its national goals and objectives. Three economic regimes are strategically important for PNG to maximize absolute regional gains – accuracy in economic calculation is necessary.
First, PNG should focus on how it should strategically maneuver in regional regimes in economic liberalization (globalization). While it assumes economic power through domestic economic signals it should map out how it will strategically position herself in its export-led strategy in Pacific Island Forum (PIF) and Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). It should take active role in influencing outcomes of ‘rules of game’ to maximize absolute gains. Failure to do so may result in continuous entrapment, abandonment and exploitation by big powers.
Second, PNG needs to build a nexus between Asian regimes to synergize its export-led strategy. In recent times, Asia is the centre of gravity attracting economic potentials. With China as the second largest economic power, bridging Asian market economy is a strategic step in harmonizing PNG’s economic wealth. ASEAN is an important regime which PNG must penetrate and participate in economic activities.
PNG must also exploit market opportunities in APEC. The APEC provides more region-wide market linkages which PNG can market its economic potentials to attract and maximize absolute gains. Should this is perfectly executed high economic returns will be attained to build economic power.
Clustering economic potentials and exploiting market synergies in Asia seems possible with heavy expansion of US and Chinese investment in the region. The US hegemonic role and rising China in the region provide yet an ideal economic environment to exploit opportunities. Power politics provides public good that can assists economically potential states such as PNG.
If these assumptions are right PNG is expected to be economically powerful and will assume some prominent roles in international relations of Pacific region. It will be an interesting historical time when PNG rises with rising China under US-led liberal order. However, this depends on the cost of political governance. Maintaining the current regime with improvement in governance mechanism is necessary.
Francis Hualupmomi studies a Master of Arts in International Relations at the Institute of International Studies, Jilin University, China. He can be reached on hualupmomif@hotmail.com
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
- Understanding Constitutional Crisis in PNG: A Political Perspective
By Francis Hualupmomi
1. Introduction
With the recent constitutional crisis, PNG is highly perceptible to be susceptible to civil crisis thrusting a state of anarchy. PNG over the years have consistently experienced a pattern of constitutional crisis. This paralysis is more similar to civil crisis seen in other ‘failed states’ such as Somalia, Fiji, Solomon Islands, to name a few. A civil crisis is inevitable when the ‘right to rule’ by the ‘rule of law’ is in question. The prevalent systematic corruption compounded with recent Maladina Bill and William Kapris are few of the cases, which exemplifies at hand a worst case scenario of the ‘rule of law’ being deliberately undermined by the state. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise the constitutional crisis in a political perspective.
2. The Logic of Constitutional Crisis
There is a bonded relationship between constitutional crisis and the concepts of sovereignty, legitimacy, authority and anarchy. An understanding on constitutional crisis is absolutely necessary to inform the public. Constitutional crisis is a situation that can be best represented in a schematised logical sequence.
The Constitution is a written’ rule of law’, which governs the behaviour of actors and institutions in a society. Sovereignty is the exclusive right to complete control over an area of governance, people, or oneself. A sovereign is the supreme lawmaking authority, subject to no other. Therefore a state is sovereign. Without a constitution there is no sovereignty. Legitimacy is having the ‘right to rule’ over a subject by the rule of law. Legitimacy sanctions a state to be sovereign. Authority is having the right to exercise power. Anarchy is non-existence of the ruler over the ruled (non-existence of right to rule by rule of law).
3. Relationship between Constitutional Crisis and Sovereignty, Legitimacy, Authority and Anarchy
In a political democracy, the state through its apparatus is the legitimate authority to exercise power in all aspects of human relation under the framework of constitution, which in effect gives state a sovereign. The government – a system constituting actors and institutions - is the apparatus of the state. The actors and institutions are elected and appointed into the system as authorities by the people on their behalf to represent ‘common interest’. This gives legitimacy to government as the process of election and appointment is legally binding. This is also applied to decision making and policy development. However, if the process is ignored, undermined or violated then the legitimacy of the state and government or its sovereignty is in question. This situation is called constitutional crisis. And when this happens this can spark a state of anarchy.
4. Conceptualising Constitutional Crisis
A. Constitutional Crisis
More precisely a constitutional crisis is a total breakdown in government’s orderly operation. It may occur as a result of certain situations:
• When factions are created in government over power play by a certain faction. This is common in conflict between different branches of government or level of government (e.g., executive, legislature, and/or judiciary), or between different levels of government (provincial and local level government); an example in PNG is the 2007 Southern Highlands Emergency.
• When one or more parties to the dispute wilfully choose to violate constitution or an unwritten constitutional convention or when disputant disagrees over interpretation of its provision or convention; a cited example is the debate on Women’ s Political Representative Bill and;
• Dispute arises because certain aspect of constitution is unclear or ambiguous which sets future precedence (Lipset, 2004). An example is on the Organic Law on Political Party and Leadership Roles of Politicians.
Generally, it occurs when a person (political or bureaucrats, or ordinary citizens) undermines the ‘rule of law’ by breaking the existing law (constitution). A constitutional crisis can lead to government paralysis, collapse, or civil war. One of the historic events of constitutional crisis is the ‘1997 Sandline crisis’ which almost renders PNG into an uncalled civil war. A constitutional crisis connotes the concept of legitimacy.
B. Legitimacy
Legitimacy is defined as the ‘right to rule’. Basically it refers to power bestowed upon government officials, acts, and institutions by people who believe that government’s actions are based on the use of power that is generally accepted and legally bonded. According to German political philosopher, Dolf Steinberger, "Legitimacy is the foundation of such governmental power as is exercised both with a consciousness on the government's part that it has a right to govern and with some recognition by the governed of that right” (1968).
The right to rule is binding when it is based on true representation of people for the people. Government is elected through elections. Institutions, policies and decisions are made through proper means governed by the ‘rule of law’.
Something becomes legitimate when one approves of it. This means policies and decisions made by the state must be mutually agreed by the people. For instance, the recent Maladina Bill cannot be legitimate when people disapprove of it. In a Lockean state government is not legitimate unless it is ruled with the consent of the governed.
Civil legitimacy therefore becomes paramount. Modern constitution is premised on the general agreement of rule of law, which assumes that rules or laws exist to be followed to achieve a common good. Therefore ‘government offices are ordered by trust rather than exercised by dominion’.
Moreover, constitutional crisis erupts when sources of legitimacy clash with one another. Constitution is the source of legitimacy. Constitutionalism is a modern concept that desires a political order governed by laws and regulations. It represents supremacy of law and not individualism, which embodies the principles of nationalism, democracy and limited government (Dogan, 2003).
Hence, in a true ideal democracy, political legitimacy involves constitutionalism or the belief that an action is legitimate because it follows regular procedures which are part of the constitutional law because constitutional procedures are agreed to by a popular consent.
Constitutionalism limits government’s action through separation of powers - a body of rules which ensure fair play and responsible government (transparency and accountability). Theoretically, democracy ensures that a government is operating under democratic principles and is subject to the will of the people. Because democracy is based on the will of the people it claims to have a popular mandate to exercise power, which is the ‘right to rule by the rule of law’. Exclusively, legitimacy of the state must be premised on these democratic principles:
• Free and fair elections in which political parties participate without any fear or pressure;
• Stable because the legitimacy of the state is not tied to an individual ruler or ruling party;
• A constitution or well-respected constitutional conventions which are upheld by the judiciary within the state;
• Popular participation of people in large numbers;
• Strong and independent media which are unbiased and free from the control of the government;
• A system of "checks and balances" and control of one organ of the state by another; and
• Economic stability with continuity in policies for a specific period (Charlton, 1986).
C. Authority
Alluding to legitimacy, the concept of state authority also defines how power is wielded within the framework of rule of law to best service popular interest. Authority is often used interchangeably with the term ‘power’. However, their meanings differ. Power is defined as ‘the ability to influence somebody to do something that he/she would not have done’, and Authority refers to a claim of legitimacy, the justification and right to exercise that power (Dahl, 1971). In other words, the right to exercise power is legitimate when it is wielded by the rule of law. If it is not in the interest of the consent, ultimately the power exercised by that authority may be deemed as illegitimate.
For instance, the covert operations undertaken by the state to deport Julian Moti out of PNG to Solomon Islands although is in the best interest of national security is absolutely illegitimate as the power of the authority to conduct that exercise is not justified by the rule of law and, even so, consent of the populous.
Max Webber argues that legitimate authority is one which is recognized as legitimate and justified by both the ruler and the ruled.
All states through the constitution sets up its institutions as its apparatus which are legitimate to exercise authority. For instance, the existence of Ombudsman Commission is a constitutional apparatus of the state bestowed with legal authority to ensure ‘checks and balances’ or a balance of power. Limiting its power by the state will contradict the notion of legitimacy. This, in extreme cases, may possibly lead to a state of anarchy.
More so, jurisprudence governs the behaviour of individuals in the society, who are driven by human nature. Human nature is driven by self-interest, a stimulus to graft. Decisions and policies pursued outside the rule of law is egoistic in nature and remains only to serve the interest of certain individuals (elites) of the society. This often leads to conflict.
Interestingly, with high impact projects such as LNG coming on stream in the market economy, certain individuals, government officials, political segments or regimes may use graft in the name of legitimacy to manipulate and bulldoze policies or laws to satisfy their own interest. Karl Marx sees it as a draconian capitalist mode of legitimacy. The irrational approach undertaken by the state in developing and managing the LNG projects which resulted in resource owners’ rebellion is a signal of civil crisis. In such situation, a state of anarchy is inevitable.
D. Anarchy (Anarchism)
Anarchy is the absence of government - a state of lawlessness due to the absence or inefficiency of the supreme power or political disorder. Anarchism is a political philosophy which considers the state undesirable, unnecessary and harmful, and instead promotes a stateless society, or anarchy. It seeks to diminish or even abolish authority in the conduct of human relations (Christiano, 2004).
Nevertheless, a state can delve into a state of anarchy should the legitimate authority distorts the rule of law. The state, its apparatus and officials may fall prey to graft behaviour to satisfy its human nature. When this occurs legitimacy is undermined causing constitutional crisis and leads to anarchy. The state theoretically will be in chaos, at the extreme of it, inexistent. In order words, if the authority violates the rule of law, the legitimate government is in itself anarchy – an illegitimate government. The civil society assumes full liberty at the expense of illegitimate government and wilfully takes the rule of law into their own hands.
For instance, this scenario may pose an important strategic question of energy security. Increasingly, with a seemingly draconian political regime in PNG, manipulated by global forces – international actors such as multinational corporations (MNCs) penetrating and influencing state decisions and policies in energy industry, a possible civil crisis in resource theatres is a potential threat. Resource owners will no longer respect the rule of law – law will be taken into their own hands – thus sovereignty of the state will be at stake.
5. Conclusion
In conclusion, theoretically, constitutional crisis is a situation that occurs when the ‘right to rule’ by the ‘rule of law ‘is under question. When this happens civil crisis is inevitable which can lead to anarchy. Practically, the recent constitutional crisis in PNG has reached a critical point of ‘brinks of demise’. The people have lost confidence and trust in state’s legitimacy. The future scenario is gloomy. A civil crisis remains highly possible, which can lead into a state of anarchy.
The Nexus between Vision 2050 and Energy Security Conundrum
Francis Hualupmomi
Introduction
Competition of energy by hegemonic powers in the Pacific region, in particular PNG has the potential to trigger inter-state or intra-state conflict or war. It is predicted that between 2015 and 2020 at macro level, conflict and war is possible between the two major conventional rival powers, US and China, whilst at micro level, civil conflict or war is possible between the state, Multi-national Corporations (MNCs) and disgruntled resource owners. These assumed scenarios posed an energy security conundrum. Therefore it is argued that China and PNG must play an important role in maintaining a ‘balance of power’ in the region through soft diplomacy. This article is an attempt to analyse and forecast future security implications and challenges in quest for energy by China and US in PNG and how these scenarios will affect Vision 2050. This will be approached at macro and micro level.
Political Economy of Energy Security: Competition and Power
Energy is both renewable and non-renewable resources. Non-renewable resources constitute fossil fuels such as petroleum (oil), hydrocarbon (gas), coal, steal, and others whilst renewable resources compose bio fuel such as solar, windmill, and others. The demand for these energy sources is so high compared to other market commodities as indicated by trends. The demand exceeds supply as non-renewable resources are over-consumed by industrialised states mostly NICs (Newly Industrialised Countries) and big economies such as the US, China, Japan, etc. The energy supply bases for the global market economy are mostly from resource-rich regions of South America, Africa, Asia and Pacific.
Historically countries within these regions have been conquered by imperialist powers in quest for ‘scramble of resources’. More precisely, these countries have always been their (imperialists’) national interest. The demand and supply of energy is a function of economic and military power. Energy resources will remain the national interest of any state in the drive towards modernisation and industrialisation.
US, China, Japan are the largest consumers of energy followed by ‘New Comers’, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia and others. For instance, China is the second largest importer of energy apart from US, especially in oil, as a result of a constant 25 years of economic growth. Its consumption from oil has risen sharply since 1993. Today it imports 40% of oil and its dependence on energy has continued to grow. According to a UN Economic Commission & Social Commission report China accounted for less than 1% of world’s energy consumption (2008).
Increasingly, as countries face rapid economic growth, urbanisation, demographic challenges, and military capability build-up, the appetite for energy will surge and fuel stiff competition among rising powers because of its economic scarcity.
The rise of NICs and or emerging powers such as India, and Pakistan will also spur more fierce and intense competition, which has already create tensions between hegemonic powers in the Asia Pacific region. More over, this scenario can potentially affect the socio-economic growth instigating civil crisis mostly in developing countries as demand for energy exceeds supply.
Macro Level:
The Pacific region in the southern hemisphere is identified by hegemonic powers as the last frontier of resource-rich nations, and in fact PNG alone has been indentified as the key geo-strategic economic base for energy supply in international relations. Therefore, Pacific in particular, PNG is or will be hegemonic powers’ national interest. As far as geo-strategic relation is concerned competition between China and US is absolutely inevitable.
At the macro level, the US assumes traditional hegemonic power in the Pacific through its deputy sheriffs; Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Britain. The end of Cold War delineates scaling down of US’s role in the Pacific with some of its missions being closed, for instance, in Solomon Islands.
Until recently, US increasingly refocus its foreign policy with respect to China’s increasing role in the region. As a result a strategic shift took place in 2008 when US announced to have its military base be relocated to Guam with a strategic objective to contain Chinese expansionism. This was evidenced in 2008 when the then Bush Administration declared the “Pacific Year” as part of its foreign policy. The US has always perceived China as its major threat in Asia Pacific. The region is closely watched by the eagle eyes in order to contain dragon’s infiltration.
In contrary, China has always played a smart game diplomacy through soft diplomacy to secure friendship with an aim to spread its culture and philosophy across borders. Indeed, Chinese diplomacy is based on Confuciasm philosophy of ‘harmonious society’. She promotes this philosophy through soft development Aids unconditionally to developing countries. In so doing, China provides a win-win situation for all actors. In PNG, Chinese foreign direct investment is voluminous. For instance, Ramu Nickel mine, the proposed International Conference Center, and many others.
Consequently, Chinese dominant role in development bilateral relations in the Pacific region has stimulated and accelerated economic growth; while at the same time increasingly instils fear and insecurity to US and its deputy sheriffs in the region. Australia, though a middle power, have competed to protect US backyard through its conditional loans, is still struggling to contain Chinese influence.
Hence, Chinese diplomatic approach in the Pacific in assisting Small Island states such as PNG through investment in energy – LNG Projects - may perhaps be perceived by US as menace as far as regional stability is concerned. More so, whilst US may perceive China otherwise, China is also promoting ‘collaborative diplomacy’ in Pacific to secure its potential energy suppliers of oil, gas, nickel, etc to build its economy, whilst establishing friendship.
Hence from a hegemonic stability perspective it is argued that diverging interests and ideational dynamics can possibly cause inter-state conflict which can trigger possible war. One would also argue that energy diplomacy may oscillate the reconfiguration of hegemonic power relations in the Pacific.
Micro Level:
At micro level it appears that legitimacy crisis and civil war are potential threats to national security as far as energy security is concerned.
First, there is possibility that the disgruntled resource owners may rebel against the state which could trigger legitimacy crisis and civil war. Second, disgruntled resource-rich owner may rebel against the MNCs which can cause civil crisis or possible military intervention (although war is unlikely).
In the former, experiences over unresolved issues relating to energy economy have demonstrated a rebellious scenario. Resource owners in most mining and petroleum projects in PNG have been treated unfairly in terms of redistribution of wealth by the government. Poor Royalties and lack of development services were a great concern. This asymmetry can lead into civil crisis when the people take the ‘rule of law’ into their own hands.
State graft by government officials in siphoning project money covertly into their empires through illegal means can cause legitimacy or civil crisis. For instance, The LNG project in Southern Highlands Province is an assumed scenario. Resource owners in the province have military capability to revolt against the state. The Singirok Gun Report suggested high and semi- powered factory guns owned by the people.
In the latter, civil war between the state and MNCs is highly possible. The operations of Exxon Mobile and G4S in LNG sites have already question the sovereignty of the state and a concern to national security. Exxon Mobil is the richest US Company in the world, which has close relationship with the US government. Exxon Mobile’s presence in PNG is a US national interest as far as its security is concern.
G4S is a highly militarised private mercenary company of US protecting its interest in different Oil fields under various berets. G4S presence also questions its immunity to the state law. The nexus between rebellious resource owners against Exxon Mobile is a threat to US and therefore is deemed as its high priority national security. In the event that the state and G4S fail to contain and stabilize the civil rebellion US military intervention is possible, although it may seem unlikely, however the 1994 Gulf War speaks for itself. There are also other civil crises such as in East Timor, Nigeria, Somalia, instigated by energy competition.
Challenge for Vision 2050
The government’s aspiration to attain ‘Middle Income Country’ by 2050 and thereby, becoming a ‘Wise, Smart, and Happy Society by 2050 may not be not fully released if it does not critically evaluate energy security systematically and respond thoughtfully at a global scale. This new paradigm shift in government thinking is a grand challenge as a nation state in modernisation. It appears that this vision may not achieve its stated gaols and objectives if security issues are not critically conceptualised at grand level. I am of the view that the greatest conundrum will ultimately rest on energy security.
PNG is predicted to see a spiralling economic growth rate of 8% annually with the full economisation of LNG projects by 2014. Although energy projects may transform PNG into a MIC at forecasted growth rate similar to China echoed by some economic analysts, its security implications are incalculable.
Energy security is strategically vital to assess ‘where we are, where we want go and how we will get there’ with energy. This will involve analysing security at macro and micro level that appropriate strategies can be framed to systematically respond thoughtfully to emerging security threats. Security of the state and individual is absolutely vital to fully realise the vision.
Role of PNG-Sino Relations
In order to avoid future conflict or possible war China and PNG will have to play an important role to maintain a balance of power in the region. PNG as an economic and strategic interest of hegemonic powers in the region will have to play a neutral diplomacy within ‘the axis of evil’ whilst China continues to play a soft diplomacy based on ‘collaborative and consensus diplomacy’. China must convince US misperception in its role in the Pacific region. PNG on the other hand must refocus or res-cope its foreign policy to contextualise the regional security perspective.
Conclusion
In conclusion energy security is a national security priority of any state. At macro level, since energy is scarce, competition between rival powers and other emerging powers can cause conflict or war in the region. At micro level legitimacy crisis or civil war is inevitable. It is argued that PNG will become a mere spectator as economic competition between China and US intensifies in the region. These scenarios pose a great challenge to PNG with respect to Vision 2050. Therefore, PNG and China will play an important role to avoid such crisis and maintain a balance of power in the region.
Any views presented here are the author’s own and it does not represent anyone or any organisation. For further information I can be informed through this email address: profdrakes@gmail.com
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